·美國就業報告預計將減少1000萬個工作崗位
·加拿大央行政策將保持不變
·澳洲聯儲可能提供樂觀的經濟前景
·歐洲央行政策會議可能會增加貨幣刺激
·美中緊張局勢可能是選舉策略
預計主要外匯貨幣將起步緩慢，然後由於三大央行會議和美國就業報告發布之前的事件風險而停留在上周的波動區間內。
在特朗普總統對中國的最新抨擊之後，市場可能存在潛在的風險規避情緒，使得交易者感到緊張。上周五下午晚些時候，特朗普總統以北京試圖平息香港動亂為由，開始剝奪香港"特殊貿易地位"。他還表示，美國將對部分中國大陸和香港官員實施制裁。打擊中國是特朗普2016年競選活動的中心主題，很明顯，它仍然是2020年競選活動的核心平台。
市場對特朗普講話的反應好壞參半。 道瓊斯工業平均指數，標準普爾500指數和納斯達克指數收複了所有講話前的跌幅，美國國債收益率下降，黃金價格堅挺，石油價格也堅挺。
外匯交易員將在周五公布五月份美國就業報告之前保持謹慎。預計將損失1000萬個工作崗位，盡管這很糟糕，但與4月份的2050萬個工作崗位的損失相比，仍然是一個很大的改善。
如果結果好於預期，交易員將得出結論，美國從COVID-19限制中複蘇的經濟比以前認為的要強勁，從而導致對所謂風險資產的新需求。（商品貨幣，石油，股票等）。失業率將緩解這種反應，特別是如果失業率高於預期的19.6％。
如果結果弱於預期，則對外匯市場的影響可能被低估了，因為封鎖措施有可能導致數據疲軟。
如果澳洲聯儲提供樂觀的經濟前景，澳元兌美元可能在周二澳大利亞儲備銀行會議之後得到提振。放松COVID-19限制可能會鼓舞他們。然而，與中國的政治緊張局勢以及對某些澳大利亞出口產品徵收關稅可能會打壓澳元。
加拿大央行會議對USDCAD幾乎沒有影響。 價格和政策將保持不變，並且不會舉行新聞發布會。這也是新任行長蒂夫·麥克勒姆（Tiff Macklem）任職期間的第一次會議。
歐洲央行政策會議將受到密切關注。預計決策者將增加大流行性緊急采購計劃（PEPP）的規模。經濟學家還預計，歐洲央行的預測將被下調，這可能給歐元兌美元帶來負面影響。但是，歐元兌美元將繼續得到歐盟提議的8250億歐元COVID-19救濟基金的支持。
歐元兌美元盤中技術指標在1.1075上方看漲。交易者正在尋找突破1.1150來達到1.1250。跌破1.1060表明將重新測試1.0950。
圖表：EURUSD 30分鍾
來源：Saxo Bank
USDCAD：加拿大央行會議和國內勞工調查數據將被其他地方的事件所掩蓋。 歐洲央行決議，美國就業報告，石油價格以及特朗普/中國的緊張關系將推動美元兌主要貨幣的走勢，而美元兌加元也將順其自然。 WTI石油正在試圖果斷突破35.00美元/桶，突破後可能大幅上漲，填補3月8日的缺口41.10美元。 如果這樣的話，USDCAD的上升將被限制在1.4050區域。
美元兌加元的短期技術面看跌，而價格低於1.4005，則在1.3850-70區域也有阻力。
從1月起2020年的上升趨勢是完整的，價格維持在1.3710以上。 跌破1.3710意味着將跌至1.3435，然後是1.3200。
圖表：每日USDCAD
來源：Saxo Bank
本周建議交易
本周交易：EURCNH可能會走低修正。
EURCNH在上周四達到7.9773的峰值。漲幅歸因於月底一些廣泛的美元拋售，等待特朗普（上周五）的新聞發布會也支持了EURCNH的走勢。像日本央行和瑞士國家銀行一樣，中國人民銀行也積極參與貨幣交易，以緩解價格波動。 中國人民銀行在周五將美元兌人民幣定價下調，這表明他們認為價格過高。 歐元兌美元不太可能在歐洲央行會議之前突破，因頭寸調整而使其容易遭受拋售壓力。 每日的RSI已超買。
交易策略：在7.9350賣出EURCNH
止損7.9652
獲利7.8550
持續時間4天
USDCNH圖表，上為布林帶，下為RSI
來源：Saxo Bank
FX Weekly(1-5 June ) by Michael O’Neill
June 1, 2020
Snapshot-The week ahead
·US employment report expected to show loss of 10 million jobs
·Bank of Canada policy will remain unchanged
·RBA may offer an upbeat economic outlook
·ECB policy meeting may increase monetary stimulus
·US/China tensions may be an election strategy
The major FX currencies are expected to get off to a slow start, and then stay inside last week's ranges due to event risk from central bank meetings, and ahead of the US employment report.
There is likely to be an undercurrent of risk aversion sentiment to keep traders nervous following President Trump's latest tirade against China. Late Friday afternoon, President Trump used Beijing's attempt to quell unrest in Hong Kong, as an excuse to begin the process of stripping HK of its "special trade status." He also said that the US would put sanctions on some PRC and HK officials. China-bashing was a central theme in Trump's 2016 election campaign, and it is evident that it remains a core platform for the 2020 campaign.
Market reaction to Trump's speech was mixed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and NASDAQ recovered all their pre-speech losses, US Treasury yields dipped, gold prices firmed, as did oil prices.
FX traders will be cautious ahead of Friday's US employment report for May. The forecast is for a loss of 10 million jobs, which, although terrible, is still a significant improvement over April's 20.5 million loss.
If the results are better than expected, traders will conclude the US economic rebound from COVID-19 restrictions is more robust than previously thought, leading to new demand for the so-called risk-assets. (Commodity currencies, oil, equities etc). The reaction will be tempered by the level of unemployment, especially if it higher than the 19.6% forecast.
If the results are weaker than expected, the impact on FX markets may be understated, as weak data is expected due to lockdown measures.
AUDUSD may get a boost following the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting on Tuesday, if the RBA provides a positive economic outlook. They may be encouraged by the easing of COVID-19 restrictions. However, political tensions with China and the imposition of tariffs on some Australian exports may weigh on the tone.
The Bank of Canada meeting will have little impact on USDCAD. Rates and policy will be unchanged, and there will not be a press conference. It is also the first meeting of new Governor Tiff Macklem' s tenure.
EURUSD outlook: The ECB policy meeting will be closely watched. Policymakers are expected to increase the size of the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP). Economists also expect that ECB forecasts will be downgraded, which could give EURUSD a negative bias. However, EURUSD will continue to be supported by the European Union (EU) proposal for an €825 billion COVID-19 Relief Fund.
The intraday EURUSD technicals are bullish above 1.1075. Traders are looking for a break of 1.1150 to lead to 1.1250. A move below 1.1060 suggests a retest of 1.0950.
Chart: EURUSD 30 minute
Source: Saxo Bank
USDCAD: The Bank of Canada meeting and the domestic Labour Survey data will be overshadowed by events elsewhere. The ECB decision, US employment report, oil prices, and Trump/China tensions will drive US dollar direction against the majors and USDCAD will just go along for the ride. WTI oil is attempting a decisive break above $35.00/barrel which could lead to a sharp spike to fill the March 8 gap at $41.10. If so, the USDCAD rise will be capped in the 1.4050 area.
The short term USDCAD technicals are bearish while prices are below 1.4005, There is also resistance in the 1.3850-70 area.
The 2020 uptrend from January is intact while prices are above 1.3710. A break below 1.3710 suggests losses to 1.3435 and then 1.3200.
Chart: USDCAD daily
Source: Saxo Bank
Trade of the Week: EURCNH may be ripe for a correction lower.
EURCNH peaked at 7.9773 on Thursday. The move was fueled by caution ahead of Trump's press, and due to some broad month-end US dollar selling pressures. The PBoC, like the Bank of Japan, and Swiss National Bank, are active in currencies, to smooth price fluctuations. The PBoC fixed USDCNY lower on Friday, which suggests they think prices are too high. EURUSD is unlikely to break higher ahead of the ECB meeting, leaving it vulnerable to selling pressures as positions get adjusted. The Daily RSI's are overbought.
Strategy: Sell EURCNH at 7.9350
Stop Loss 7.9652
Take profit 7.8550
Duration 4 days
Chart USDCNH with Bollinger bands and RSI
Source: Saxo Bank
本文由Michael O’Neill為FX168獨家供稿，受版權保護，禁止任何形式的轉載或複制。
This article, written by Michael O’Neill, is exclusive for FX168. Copyright reserved. Reprint or reproduction, partially or in full is strictly prohibted.
