Michael O’Neill外汇市场周报（6月1-5日）

·美国就业报告预计将减少1000万个工作岗位

·加拿大央行政策将保持不变

·澳洲联储可能提供乐观的经济前景

·欧洲央行政策会议可能会增加货币刺激

·美中紧张局势可能是选举策略

预计主要外汇货币将起步缓慢，然後由於三大央行会议和美国就业报告发布之前的事件风险而停留在上周的波动区间内。

在特朗普总统对中国的最新抨击之後，市场可能存在潜在的风险规避情绪，使得交易者感到紧张。上周五下午晚些时候，特朗普总统以北京试图平息香港动乱为由，开始剥夺香港"特殊贸易地位"。他还表示，美国将对部分中国大陆和香港官员实施制裁。打击中国是特朗普2016年竞选活动的中心主题，很明显，它仍然是2020年竞选活动的核心平台。

市场对特朗普讲话的反应好坏参半。 道琼斯工业平均指数，标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克指数收复了所有讲话前的跌幅，美国国债收益率下降，黄金价格坚挺，石油价格也坚挺。

外汇交易员将在周五公布五月份美国就业报告之前保持谨慎。预计将损失1000万个工作岗位，尽管这很糟糕，但与4月份的2050万个工作岗位的损失相比，仍然是一个很大的改善。

如果结果好於预期，交易员将得出结论，美国从COVID-19限制中复苏的经济比以前认为的要强劲，从而导致对所谓风险资产的新需求。（商品货币，石油，股票等）。失业率将缓解这种反应，特别是如果失业率高於预期的19.6％。

如果结果弱於预期，则对外汇市场的影响可能被低估了，因为封锁措施有可能导致数据疲软。

如果澳洲联储提供乐观的经济前景，澳元兑美元可能在周二澳大利亚储备银行会议之後得到提振。放松COVID-19限制可能会鼓舞他们。然而，与中国的政治紧张局势以及对某些澳大利亚出口产品徵收关税可能会打压澳元。

加拿大央行会议对USDCAD几乎没有影响。 价格和政策将保持不变，并且不会举行新闻发布会。这也是新任行长蒂夫·麦克勒姆（Tiff Macklem）任职期间的第一次会议。

欧洲央行政策会议将受到密切关注。预计决策者将增加大流行性紧急采购计划（PEPP）的规模。经济学家还预计，欧洲央行的预测将被下调，这可能给欧元兑美元带来负面影响。但是，欧元兑美元将继续得到欧盟提议的8250亿欧元COVID-19救济基金的支持。

欧元兑美元盘中技术指标在1.1075上方看涨。交易者正在寻找突破1.1150来达到1.1250。跌破1.1060表明将重新测试1.0950。

图表：EURUSD 30分钟

来源：Saxo Bank

USDCAD：加拿大央行会议和国内劳工调查数据将被其他地方的事件所掩盖。 欧洲央行决议，美国就业报告，石油价格以及特朗普/中国的紧张关系将推动美元兑主要货币的走势，而美元兑加元也将顺其自然。 WTI石油正在试图果断突破35.00美元/桶，突破後可能大幅上涨，填补3月8日的缺口41.10美元。 如果这样的话，USDCAD的上升将被限制在1.4050区域。

美元兑加元的短期技术面看跌，而价格低於1.4005，则在1.3850-70区域也有阻力。

从1月起2020年的上升趋势是完整的，价格维持在1.3710以上。 跌破1.3710意味着将跌至1.3435，然後是1.3200。

图表：每日USDCAD

来源：Saxo Bank

本周建议交易

本周交易：EURCNH可能会走低修正。

EURCNH在上周四达到7.9773的峰值。涨幅归因於月底一些广泛的美元抛售，等待特朗普（上周五）的新闻发布会也支持了EURCNH的走势。像日本央行和瑞士国家银行一样，中国人民银行也积极参与货币交易，以缓解价格波动。 中国人民银行在周五将美元兑人民币定价下调，这表明他们认为价格过高。 欧元兑美元不太可能在欧洲央行会议之前突破，因头寸调整而使其容易遭受抛售压力。 每日的RSI已超买。

交易策略：在7.9350卖出EURCNH

止损7.9652

获利7.8550

持续时间4天

USDCNH图表，上为布林带，下为RSI

来源：Saxo Bank

FX Weekly(1-5 June ) by Michael O’Neill

June 1, 2020

Snapshot-The week ahead

·US employment report expected to show loss of 10 million jobs

·Bank of Canada policy will remain unchanged

·RBA may offer an upbeat economic outlook

·ECB policy meeting may increase monetary stimulus

·US/China tensions may be an election strategy

The major FX currencies are expected to get off to a slow start, and then stay inside last week's ranges due to event risk from central bank meetings, and ahead of the US employment report.

There is likely to be an undercurrent of risk aversion sentiment to keep traders nervous following President Trump's latest tirade against China. Late Friday afternoon, President Trump used Beijing's attempt to quell unrest in Hong Kong, as an excuse to begin the process of stripping HK of its "special trade status." He also said that the US would put sanctions on some PRC and HK officials. China-bashing was a central theme in Trump's 2016 election campaign, and it is evident that it remains a core platform for the 2020 campaign.

Market reaction to Trump's speech was mixed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and NASDAQ recovered all their pre-speech losses, US Treasury yields dipped, gold prices firmed, as did oil prices.

FX traders will be cautious ahead of Friday's US employment report for May. The forecast is for a loss of 10 million jobs, which, although terrible, is still a significant improvement over April's 20.5 million loss.

If the results are better than expected, traders will conclude the US economic rebound from COVID-19 restrictions is more robust than previously thought, leading to new demand for the so-called risk-assets. (Commodity currencies, oil, equities etc). The reaction will be tempered by the level of unemployment, especially if it higher than the 19.6% forecast.

If the results are weaker than expected, the impact on FX markets may be understated, as weak data is expected due to lockdown measures.

AUDUSD may get a boost following the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting on Tuesday, if the RBA provides a positive economic outlook. They may be encouraged by the easing of COVID-19 restrictions. However, political tensions with China and the imposition of tariffs on some Australian exports may weigh on the tone.

The Bank of Canada meeting will have little impact on USDCAD. Rates and policy will be unchanged, and there will not be a press conference. It is also the first meeting of new Governor Tiff Macklem' s tenure.

EURUSD outlook: The ECB policy meeting will be closely watched. Policymakers are expected to increase the size of the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP). Economists also expect that ECB forecasts will be downgraded, which could give EURUSD a negative bias. However, EURUSD will continue to be supported by the European Union (EU) proposal for an €825 billion COVID-19 Relief Fund.

The intraday EURUSD technicals are bullish above 1.1075. Traders are looking for a break of 1.1150 to lead to 1.1250. A move below 1.1060 suggests a retest of 1.0950.

Chart: EURUSD 30 minute

Source: Saxo Bank

USDCAD: The Bank of Canada meeting and the domestic Labour Survey data will be overshadowed by events elsewhere. The ECB decision, US employment report, oil prices, and Trump/China tensions will drive US dollar direction against the majors and USDCAD will just go along for the ride. WTI oil is attempting a decisive break above $35.00/barrel which could lead to a sharp spike to fill the March 8 gap at $41.10. If so, the USDCAD rise will be capped in the 1.4050 area.

The short term USDCAD technicals are bearish while prices are below 1.4005, There is also resistance in the 1.3850-70 area.

The 2020 uptrend from January is intact while prices are above 1.3710. A break below 1.3710 suggests losses to 1.3435 and then 1.3200.

Chart: USDCAD daily

Source: Saxo Bank

Trade of the Week: EURCNH may be ripe for a correction lower.

EURCNH peaked at 7.9773 on Thursday. The move was fueled by caution ahead of Trump's press, and due to some broad month-end US dollar selling pressures. The PBoC, like the Bank of Japan, and Swiss National Bank, are active in currencies, to smooth price fluctuations. The PBoC fixed USDCNY lower on Friday, which suggests they think prices are too high. EURUSD is unlikely to break higher ahead of the ECB meeting, leaving it vulnerable to selling pressures as positions get adjusted. The Daily RSI's are overbought.

Strategy: Sell EURCNH at 7.9350                                                                 

Stop Loss 7.9652                                                                                 

Take profit 7.8550                                                                         

Duration 4 days

Chart USDCNH with Bollinger bands and RSI

Source: Saxo Bank

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